1
Well, let’s go even deeper inside the turnover margin. Look at the most discouraging part of that statistic — fumbles.
I compiled fumble numbers for Nebraska and the other top 20 BCS programs over the last four years (measured by winning percentage).
I broke down the numbers into four categories:
1– Offensive fumbles
2– Offensive fumbles lost
3– Defensive fumbles forced
4– Defensive fumbles recovered
Year-by-year, this is Nebraska’s fumble data:
’11: 32 offensive fumbles/11 lost; 16 fumbles forced/8 recovered (-3 turnover margin)
’10: 45/16; 16/4 (-12)
’09: 21/11; 26/8 (-3)
’08: 31/17; 17/5 (-12)
The totals: 129 offensive fumbles/55 lost; 75 defensive fumbles forced/25 recovered
So the Huskers have put the ball on the ground 54 more times than their opponents in Pelini’s four years. They’ve lost 30 more fumbles.
Compare Nebraska to the other top 20 programs. As you’ll see, minus-30 is last.
Oklahoma: 79/32; 106/52 (+20)
Ohio St: 63/26; 95/43 (+17)
Oklahoma State: 83/44; 91/60 (+16)
LSU: 77/26; 111/41 (+15)
Stanford: 76/37; 96/50 (+13)
Missouri: 66/32; 87/43 (+11)
Virginia Tech: 81/34; 93/43 (+9)
Texas: 72/42; 107/46 (+4)
USC: 72/37; 83/40 (+3)
Wisconsin: 69/39; 82/41 (+2)
Penn State: 87/34; 64/35 (+1)
Alabama: 67/30; 74/28 (-2)
Iowa: 61/36; 74/32 (-4)
Oregon: 103/58; 91/54 (-4)
Michigan St: 76/37; 74/32 (-5)
Cincinnati: 87/38; 79/31 (-7)
Auburn: 88/45; 81/36 (-9)
West Virginia: 102/56; 82/37 (-19)
Florida: 98/47; 68/25 (-22)
Nebraska: 129/55; 75/25 (-30)
Now let’s break it down by category. The Huskers have, by far, the most offensive fumbles. They’re third-to-last in fumbles lost. They’re near the bottom in defensive fumbles forced. They’re tied for last in defensive fumbles recovered.
Offensive fumbles:
Nebraska 129
Oregon 103
West Virginia 102
Florida 98
Auburn 88
Penn State 87
Cincinnati 87
Oklahoma State 83
Virginia Tech 81
Oklahoma 79
LSU 77
Stanford 76
Michigan State 76
Texas 72
USC 72
Wisconsin 69
Alabama 67
Missouri 66
Ohio State 63
Iowa 61
Offensive fumbles lost:
Oregon 58
West Virginia 56
Nebraska 55
Florida 47
Auburn 45
Oklahoma State 44
Texas 42
Wisconsin 39
Cincinnati 38
Michigan State 37
USC 37
Stanford 37
Iowa 36
Virginia Tech 34
Penn State 34
Oklahoma 32
Missouri 32
Alabama 30
Ohio State 26
LSU 26
Defensive fumbles forced:
LSU 111
Texas 107
Oklahoma 106
Stanford 96
Ohio State 95
Virginia Tech 93
Oregon 91
Oklahoma State 91
Missouri 87
USC 83
Wisconsin 82
West Virginia 82
Auburn 81
Cincinnati 79
Nebraska 75
Alabama 74
Michigan State 74
Iowa 74
Florida 68
Penn State 64
Defensive fumble recoveries:
Oklahoma State 60
Oregon 54
Oklahoma 52
Stanford 50
Texas 46
Virginia Tech 43
Missouri 43
Ohio State 43
Wisconsin 41
LSU 41
USC 40
West Virginia 37
Auburn 36
Penn State 35
Michigan State 32
Iowa 32
Cincinnati 31
Alabama 28
Florida 25
Nebraska 25
You can make all sorts of conclusions from these numbers, but here are a few observations:
– The number that jumps off the page is Nebraska’s offensive fumbles. Nebraska had more offensive fumbles the past two seasons (77) than half of these teams had in four years!
Obviously, the Huskers’ priority on rushing the ball contributes to that number; a passing team generally won’t fumble as much. But 129? Where are those fumbles coming from?
I examined the last two seasons, when NU’s numbers were worst.
Of the 77 fumbles, Taylor Martinez has 30
. That exceeds the total for Wisconsin’s entire team. It equals Ohio State’s and Iowa’s entire team.What’s crazy is Nebraska has lost only seven of Martinez’s 30. That is, dare I say, a magical recovery rate.
– Other notable individuals from the past two years:
Ameer Abdullah had seven fumbles in 2011; he lost four. That’s too many considering his low number of touches.
Niles Paul had five fumbles in 2010; he lost two. Four of Paul’s fumbles came in non-conference play. Roy Helu had four fumbles in 2010; he lost three. Cody Green was a fumble machine in 2010. He let the ball go eight times, but lost just one.
Rex Burkhead had four fumbles the past two years — he lost two. But in 2011, a season in which he had 305 touches, Burkhead fumbled just once (against Northwestern). Impressive.
– I combed through box scores and compared Martinez’s 30 fumbles to three other dual-threat, two-year starting quarterbacks:
Robert Griffin had 19 fumbles, losing nine. Denard Robinson had 19 fumbles, losing eight. Nathan Scheelhaase had 10 fumbles, losing six.
Martinez’s 30 fumbles is way too many, even if he only lost seven.
– What do you make of the recovery rates? Are they based in luck or skill? Nebraska’s offense has lost only 43 percent of its fumbles; most teams lose close to 50 percent. Meanwhile, the Blackshirts have recovered just 33 percent of opponents’ fumbles, a startlingly low number.
– Look at those 19 other programs on the list — all competitive peers of Nebraska. Combined, they had just four seasons of 30-plus fumbles. Florida had one. So did Penn State, West Virginia and Cincinnati. None had more than 34 fumbles (Florida in 2010). Nebraska, on the other hand, had three 30-fumble seasons: 31 in 2008, 32 in 2011 and 45 in 2010.
That’s all I have for now. Let me know if you have questions — or if you spotted an error. Also, drop me a comment. What do these numbers mean? Are they significant? Trivial? How concerned should Bo Pelini be? And what can he do to fix them?
